How many deaths will result from the Trump rally in Tulsa? The formula is simple:

(# of attendees in arena plus overflow) x (Fraction of attendees already infected) x (Average transmission rate) x (mortality rate of Covid-19) = deaths

Let’s call (# of attendees in arena plus overflow) = N

(Fraction of attendees already infected) = F

(Average transmission rate) = R

(mortality rate of Covid-19) = M

So, Deaths = N x F x R x M

Nobody can dispute this equation; it’s true by definition. The uncertainty is what values to assign to the variables N, F, R, and M.

Here are my guesses:

N = 30,000 (19,000 in arena plus 11,000 outside and in the overflow area

F = 5%, or .05 (roughly the middle of the widespread population testing that’s been reported

R = 3 (that’s what was estimated before widespread mitigation started. Probably way too low for a big crowd of deniers

M = 2%, or .02.

Plugging these speculative values into the master formula we get

Deaths = 30,000 x .05 x 3 x .02 = 90

My guess is 90 humans will die from attending the Tulsa rally. What’s your guess?

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